袁国华等：中国未来镍供需及相关材料、能源、水与碳排放的动态分析-自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室

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袁国华等：中国未来镍供需及相关材料、能源、水与碳排放的动态分析

作者：袁国华，艾曼，席皛　　　　发表时间：2021-10-28　　　审核：

由于对镍的传统应用的需求增加以及能源和运输部门的转型，全球和中国的镍需求正在增加。与此同时，镍的生产与大量的能源、水和碳排放相关，由于需求增长、矿石品位下降和生产工艺的转变，预计这些排放将会继续增加。在本文中，我们利用动态物流-库存模型研究镍在传统应用、能源供应技术、电动汽车以及一次和二次来源供应方面的需求情景，分析了中国镍使用与材料-能源-水-气候连系。结果表明，中国的镍需求预计在所有情景下都将增加，并在2034年至2040年之间保持稳定。如果限制废钢进口，到2050年，二手供应可满足需求的51%至65%，而不限制则可达85%。2018年，与镍生产相关的年平均能源占中国总用电量的2.6%至6.9%。进口废料减少了27%至42%的累积能源消耗。2018年电力行业年平均二氧化碳排放量占总排放量的0.2%-0.52%，2015年工业行业年平均用水量占总用水量的0.09%-0.31%，主要是间接用水。

Dynamic analysis of future nickel demand, supply, and associated materials, energy, water, and carbon emissions in China

YUAN Guohua, Ayman Elshkaki, XI Xiao

Resources Policy Volume 74, December 2021, 102432

Abstract

Nickel demand is increasing globally and in China as a result of increasing demand for its traditional applications and the transition in energy and transportation sectors. Meanwhile, nickel production is associated with significant energy, water and carbon emissions, which are expected to increase due to increasing demand, decreasing ore grade, and production processes shift. In this paper, we analyse material-energy-water-climate nexus associated with nickel use in China using a dynamic material flow-stock model and several scenarios for nickel demand in traditional applications, energy supply technologies, and electric vehicles, and its supply from primary and secondary sources. The results indicate that nickel demand is expected to increase in all scenarios and stabilize between 2034 and 2040. Secondary supply could cover between 51 and 65% of the demand by 2050 if China is restricting scrap import, while up to 85% without restriction. Average annual energy associated with nickel production constitutes between 2.6 and 6.9% of total electricity consumption in China in 2018. Importing scrap reduce between 27 and 42% of cumulative energy. Average annual CO2 emissions constitute between 0.2 and 0.52% of the power sector emissions in 2018, and average annual water constitutes between 0.09 and 0.31% of total water consumption in industrial sector in 2015, mainly attributed to indirect water consumption.

阅读全文：https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1d~SU14YFx0Dz~

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